The biggest threat to the U.S. Ryder Cup team

Golf Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While I was busy searching for the best line to describe Miguel Angel Jimenez, someone I don't know beat me to it.

In the Internet age, it isn't hard to believe how it happened.

Sports Illustrated writer Alan Shipnuck posted to his Twitter feed Sunday a text message he received from a friend: "Is Miguel Angel Jimenez actually the most interesting man in the world?"

The answer, of course, is no, although watching the cigar-chewing Jimenez describe his post-round dinners in Switzerland in that distinctive Spanish diction was as interesting as anything in those Dos Equis commercials.

Ponytailed and built like an upside-down pear, Jimenez represents the biggest threat to this year's U.S. Ryder Cup team, which is set to be finalized with Corey Pavin's captain's picks on Tuesday morning.

He is the Overlooked Opponent.

For all the talk about how strong the European side is -- Paul Casey is a top-10 player and not on the team? -- almost none of the discussion has included Jimenez.

In fact, when I asked the only Ryder Cup expert I know if Jimenez should have been considered for a captain's selection had he not made the team on points, his answer was a swift "no."

But why not?

Jimenez became the first player on either the PGA or European Tour to win three times this season when he captured the European Masters on Sunday.

Seven days before, Jimenez tied for third place at the Johnnie Walker Championship to make the European team on points, securing one of the last automatic spots.

Despite having another winning season -- he has also picked up titles at the Dubai Desert Classic and French Open -- Jimenez was basically an afterthought when the European Ryder Cup team was finalized by captain Colin Montgomerie.

All the big names came up: Ryder Cup stalwarts Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Padraig Harrington. Rising star Rory McIlroy. Italian brothers Francesco and Edoardo Molinari.

There wasn't much discussion of the 46-year-old Jimenez. Was it because he only built a 2-7-3 record in three previous Ryder Cup appearances? More ammo for the Overlooked Opponent argument.

We don't know how anyone on the European team will play at Celtic Manor in three weeks, but we do know a few other things.

Westwood, one of the winningest players in Ryder Cup history, is nursing a calf injury and hasn't played four competitive rounds since his runner-up finish at the British Open.

Harrington is having a middling season by his standards and hasn't won since the 2008 PGA Championship. Poulter hasn't posted a top-10 finish since the Masters.

Meanwhile, Jimenez continues to have one of the more noteworthy careers of the last decade. The man they call "The Mechanic" has captured 11 of his 18 career wins since he turned 40.

Another example of his ageless talent? Jimenez flirted with shooting the first 59 in European Tour history last Friday, a bid that was derailed by three straight pars at the end of his round.

Jimenez shot a 61 instead, good for a three-shot lead heading into the weekend. Then he played the final two rounds in the same group with Edoardo Molinari, the 29-year-old surging half of the talented Italian brothers.

In what was basically a match-play scenario between the two players, Jimenez matched Molinari's score in both rounds, protecting his three-shot lead until the end.

Of course, Jimenez was in his element. During the 22 years he has showed up to play at the Swiss mountain resort, Jimenez has stayed in the same hotels, eaten at the same restaurants, enjoyed the support of the same galleries.

"They love me here," he said, drawing on one of his gigantic cigars.

They may love him at Celtic Manor, too, and that should give the American team pause.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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